May Day! May Day!
It's coming. May Day is but ten days away. Say what? Wasn't May Day last week- May 1st. Yes, but I'm talking about the Democraitc party May Day of May 20th. That's the day that Barack Obama will declare VICTORY in his bid for the Democratic nomination. He'll lose West Virginia next Tuesday (diving up only 28 delegates in this small state). On May 20th he'll split with Hillary- She gets Kentucky (51 delegates) and he gets Oregon (52 delegates).
Then all hell breaks lose, unless people quit funding Hillary's losing campaign: which they are now.
Not long after the polls close in the May 20 Kentucky and Oregon primaries, Barack Obama plans to declare victory in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. The Obama campaign agrees with the Democratic National Committee, which pegs a winning majority at 2,025 pledged delegates and superdelegates-a figure that excludes the penalized Florida and Michigan delegations. The Clinton campaign, on the other hand, insists the winner will need 2,209 to cinch the nomination-a tally that includes Florida and Michigan.
Ah, but they aren't in the mix and won't be (if at all) until the DNC meets May 31st. It's a train wreck waiting to happen, with one candidate claiming to be the nominee while the other vigorously denies it, all predicated on an argument over what exactly constitutes the finish line of the primary race.
Are we having fun yet?
McCain is!
Obama will not reach the 2,025 magic number on May 20. Rather, on that date he is all but certain to hit a different threshold-1,627 pledged delegates, which would constitute a winning majority among the 3,253 total pledged delegates if Florida and Michigan are not included. "On May 20 we're going to declare victory," said an Obama senior advisor who asked that his name be withheld to speak candidly, adding that after those contests they will be "the ones with the most pledged delegates and the most popular votes."
Thank you North Carolina for your Obama victory.
But the Clinton campaign's insistence on counting Florida and Michigan would alter not only the overall delegate math, but the pledged delegate math as well. Because if the two states are included in the count, the total number of pledged delegates would rise from 3,253 to 3,566-which means the magic number for a majority rises to 1,784, not 1,627 as the Obama campaign asserts.
I don't think Operation Chaos could do any better job of creating chaos than they are themselves.
And you thought this battle was already rough-n-tumble! :-)
Related Tags: kentucky, oregon, west virginia, obama, hillary, superdelegates, pledged delegates, operation chaos
ernie@lrchouston.com
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