New Uranium Miners Exploit Record Price


by James Finch - Date: 2007-02-09 - Word Count: 738 Share This!

Are U.S. utilities wishing the Cigar Lake mine floor nightmare would go away by next month? Has sufficient time elapsed that the nuclear utilities have reached the point of denial, and that up to 10 percent of the world's mined uranium won't be stalled indefinitely? Cameco Corp's December 21st update offered some hope which has frozen the spot uranium prize at $72/pound for three straight weeks.

Cameco Corp's chief operating officer glumly hinted at something we highlighted in our late October report, "Drilling through the Athabasca sandstone has been more challenging than anticipated." Several sources, some of which may be reliable, suggested Cameco still can't the stop the water from coming in at the Cigar Lake uranium mine. We'll find out in February whether this was gossip, old news or accurate.

According to Treva Klingbiel, editor of TradeTech's Nuclear Market Review, the weekly spot U3O8 indicator stalled at $72/pound for the third straight week in quiet trading. Only one small off-market transaction took place as "the majority of market participants remain focused on early February and the anticipated update from Cameco regarding the status of remediation efforts underway at the Cigar Lake mine," Ms. Klingbiel wrote.

However, the number of active buyers rose by one to an even dozen, this past week, when a U.S. utility asked to purchase approximately 650,000 pounds U3O8 contained in UF6. Total demand for U3O8 equivalent rose to 6.5 million pounds. "Fifteen buyers remain in the long-term market evaluating or actively seeking offers totaling almost 54 million pounds U3O8 equivalent," Klingbiel wrote. One U.S. utility and two non-U.S. utilities are presently evaluating offers to buy more than 16 million pounds of U3O8 equivalent between 2009 and 2016. "Nine utilities continue to evaluate potential off-market purchases to cover long-term enrichment commitments," wrote Klingbiel.

For some the Cigar Lake fiasco has become a blessing. On January 11th, UrAsia Energy announced a sales contract with a "major North American utility." According to the company's news release, approximately four million pounds of U3O8 have been offered for delivery over a five-year period from the Akdala uranium mine in Kazakhstan. UrAsia has a 70-percent interest in the joint venture, which wholly owns the mine.

Because of the recent surge in the spot uranium price, the contract includes market-related pricing with a floor price protection at the weekly spot price indicator of US$72/pound. Of course, over the course of the next few years, the utility may be forced to pay more for the same uranium but UrAsia is guaranteed this floor price.

A day earlier, SXR Uranium One announced further sales contracts from the company's Dominion uranium/gold project in South Africa. Four new contracts offering 3.2 million pounds of U3O8 for delivery between 2008 and 2012 not only include escalating floor price protection but are also uncapped. Two months earlier, SXR had announced its first sales contract with a "western world utility" offering 1.5 million pounds for delivery between 2008 and 2012. The lion's share of Dominion uranium production has yet to be negotiated.

Because of the Cigar Lake flooding, utilities now contracting with UrAsia and SXR have been forced to pay about $150 million more for the 8.7 million pounds of uranium oxide than they might have paid on October 20, 2006. Because of the escalating floor price protection, the final penalty could surpass $200 million - just because utilities refuse to believe the uranium price should be ‘this high.' In October, Sprott Asset Management's Kevin Bambrough likened the mood between uranium buyers and sellers to a poker game.

A year ago, U.S. utilities and others could have committed to those 8.7 million pounds for about $250 to $400 million less than what they might ultimately pay for this same U3O8. And the next generation of near-term uranium producers, several companies which were discussed in StockInterview's "Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market" (Click to bookstore), are likely to become the next big winners. Right now, the sellers are holding the winning hand. Unless Cameco offers some relief, the utilities' bluff for lower prices has continued to penalize their shareholders.

As SXR's Chief Executive Neal Froneman told one news service late this past week, "I would like someone to tell me how you can get a better contract than that!"

COPYRIGHT © 2007 by StockInterview, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

James Finch contributes to StockInterview.com and other publications. StockInterview's "Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market" has become the most popular book ever published for uranium mining stock investors. Visit http://www.stockinterview.com

Related Tags: uranium, kazakhstan, uranium price, spot uranium price, uranium mining companies, cameco, cigar lake, u3o8, nuclear fuel, uranium miners, u.s. utilities, urasia energy, uranium bull market, sxr uranium one, uranium investor, dominion uranium project, uranium mine, uranium producers, kevin bambrough, sprott asset mangement

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