Five Battle Ground States


by Ernie Fitzpatrick - Date: 2008-10-07 - Word Count: 614 Share This!

As we move within 3-4 weeks of the November election for president, it's time to quit looking at the daily national polls that have so and so ahead by three points one day and then by 4 points the next- ad nauseum. Whatever the national preferences are doesn't matter. It's all about electoral votes, so make a favorite page out of the electoral vote numbers.  <!--more-->

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<a href="http://www.fec.gov/pages/elecvote.htm">CLICK HERE</a> for one such map!

There are 538 electoral votes and it takes 270 to win. Is a tie possible? Yep! 269-269! However, when one looks at the red states and blue states a few things are obvious. McCain is not going to win California and Obama is not going to win Texas. Forgetdaboutdit! Thus, when you get down to it, you can probably forget about 40 of the 50 states. Thos votes are in teh bag.

That means there's about a dozen states that might be in play. Let's look at five such states.

A recent CNN/Time magazine/Opinion Research Corp. polls of likely voters in Indiana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin reflect a significant nationwide shift toward the Democratic presidential nominee.

Obama has made significant strides in New Hampshire, the state credited with reviving Sen. John McCain's Republican primary campaign in both 2000 and 2008. Fifty-three percent of New Hampshire's likely voters are backing Obama, while 45 percent are supporting McCain. Obama held a lead of 5 percentage points in the last CNN New Hampshire poll, taken in early September. Four years ago, Sen. John Kerry narrowly carried New Hampshire -- a one-time GOP stronghold. George W. Bush squeezed out a slender win by 1 percentage point in 2000.

In Indiana, 51 percent of likely voters say McCain is their choice for president, with 46 percent backing Obama, a Democratic senator from neighboring Illinois. Indiana went for Bush by 21 percentage points four years ago; Democrats have not carried Indiana since 1964. See the latest polling

In North Carolina, the two major party nominees are locked in a dead heat, with McCain and Obama each claiming the support of 49 percent of likely voters. The last Democrat to carry North Carolina was Jimmy Carter, a Southerner, in 1976. The state's 15 electoral votes are considered critical for any successful Republican presidential campaign.

McCain trails Obama in Ohio; 50 percent of likely voters favor Obama, while 47 percent support the senator from Arizona. No Republican has won the White House without carrying the state. "McCain has a 6-point lead in the Cincinnati area," Holland said. "But a GOP candidate normally needs to do better than that in southwestern Ohio in order to win the state. And overall, Obama actually has a 2-point edge among suburban communities across the state."

In Wisconsin, which hasn't voted Republican since 1984, Obama is holding a 51 percent to 46 percent lead among likely voters. "Obama continues to maintain a 'home field advantage' in the southern Wisconsin counties that border Illinois," Holland said. "He has nearly a 30-point lead in the city of Milwaukee, although he loses the Milwaukee suburbs by nearly as large a margin."

Any Democratic candidates starts off with a large lead due to the East & West coast liberal leanings. It's a big hole when the Republican candidate starts off in a 86 electoral hole (California and New York). As a remind the top 5 electoral states are:

1-California     55
2-Texas         34
3-New York    31 
4-Florida        27
5-Illinois and
   Penn..........21 each

So, watch where the candidates go over the next three weeks and that will tell you everything you need to know about who is worrying about what. It's the electoral college that counts, not the nationwide popular opinions.


Related Tags: popular opinion, red states, electoral college, democratic candidates, five battleground states, blue states

As a spiritual-futurist, I interpret current events in light of possible macro-universal forces at play leading up to 2012, but not limited to it.

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