Health Care Spending to Double by 2016
Karen Davis, president of the Commonwealth Fund said, "We haven't solved the health-care cost problem, there was a lot of feeling when the 2006 numbers came out and we were growing at about 7 percent a year, that maybe it wasn't a continuing problem. But, I think even growing at 7 percent a year you see that by 2016 we are going to be spending 20 percent of the nation's economy on health care. I think it says we've got to get serious about doing something that really improves the efficiency of the health-care system and not just shifting money."
HealthDay summarizers the report:
• Medicaid spending is expected to reach $313.5 billion in 2006, about the same as in 2005.
• Medicaid drug spending is projected to drop 36 percent between 2005 and 2006 as low-income recipients who also are eligible for Medicare start receiving drug coverage through the new Part D program.
• With the addition of Part D, total Medicare spending growth is expected to reach $417.6 billion in 2006, up from $342 billion the year before. Medicare spending growth is expected to slow to 6.5 percent in 2007, partly due to legislated cuts in payments to managed-care plans and to physicians. By 2016, Medicare spending is expected to more than double, reaching $862.7 billion.
• U.S. prescription drug spending should reach $497.5 billion by 2016, more than double the expected level for 2006. Prescription drug spending will grow at an average annual rate of 8.6 percent until 2016.
• The cost of hospital care is expected to climb to more than $1.2 trillion by 2016, vs. $651.8 billion expected for 2006. The growth rate for hospital spending is expected to slow, from 7.9 percent in 2005 to 6.6 percent in 2006.
• In 2006, consumers are expected to spend slightly less than 1 percent more in out-of-pocket ($250.6 billion) health-care costs. The total spent will reach $440.8 billion by 2016, however. In 2005, an individual spent an average of $850.02 on health care and in 2006 they are projected to spend $846.50. In 2016, the average spent will be $1,405.73, although that number is not adjusted for inflation, officials said.
• Private health insurance premiums are expected to grow 4.4 percent in 2006, down from a high of 11 percent in 2002.
• Growth in total physician and clinical spending is expected to slow from 7 percent in 2005, to 6.1 percent in 2006.
• Growth in nursing home spending is also expected to slow, from 6 percent in 2005 to 3.4 percent in 2006, largely as a result of slowing Medicaid and Medicare spending.
• Home health spending is likely to rise 1.4 percentage points to 12.5 percent in 2006, or $53.4 billion. This would make it the fastest growing area of health care.
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