Horse Racing Handicapping Workouts How To Spot A Big Improvement

by Bill Peterson - Date: 2008-05-12 - Word Count: 467 Share This!

Workout times can be one of the most misleading handicapping factors going. The problem is that handicappers just don't know what the intent of the trainer is and also what condition the horse is really in. With maiden runners the problem isn't quite so bad because a long set of progressive workouts shows a maiden that is being prepared with a good foundation. The actual times of the maiden's works don't matter as much as the steady progression.

The problem is with older horses. Whether a cheap claimer or a higher class runner, injuries, lameness, soreness, as well as "head" problems, do occasionally happen. A good trainer will spot those problems and work to overcome them, sometimes with rest, therapy, or even works.

Horse Racing Handicapping is a matter of spotting a horse that is about to perform better than recent form indicates. Those surprises equal big payoffs. Unless you have good inside information, where do you go to find out if a runner is about to put forth a surprisingly good effort?

One thing that has worked for me over the years is following works and comparing them and keeping a record of how a horse performs against other horses when it works. Now admittedly, most horses work alone unless otherwise specified, but they still work on the same track and days as other horses. So following a horse you have an interest in for several months may pay off when it has a surprisingly good work. Here is an example of what I mean...

Lets say you have been following a horse named, "Speedy." You have followed Speedy's workouts over the last 3 months and each time that Speedy worked you read the works for the other horses at that track on that day. Speedy usually breezes somewhere around the slowest time for breezes on any day he works. You read Speedy's works on any given day he works slower than the other horse's works or somewhere near the bottom of the pile in workout times.

Then a week before his next race you see that Speedy just worked 2 ticks faster than any other horse except one. Speedy didn't get a bullet, but it was still a fast work for Speedy. Now he is in a race today and as usual, due to his losing efforts, today he is going off at long odds. Based on the improvement in his works Speedy is a good bet and the fact that he missed the bullet in spite of the big improvement means the odds will be good for a nice payoff. It doesn't matter why Speedy worked faster than usual, whatever the reason may be it is all positive.

Learn to follow horses and compare their workout efforts to other horses and you will find some big payoffs with surprise winners.

Related Tags: horseracing, horse betting, thoroughbred racing, punting, horse racing handicapping, picking winners

Bill Peterson has been in horse racing for 50 years. "Horse Racing is in my blood." Learn how an insider handicaps horse races by visiting Bill's website Horse Racing Handicapping with Willie's. To see the systems Bill uses, go to Bill's Handicapping Store or True Handicapping

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