Looking at the imaging supplies business, the days of rapid growth were over. The stupidity of the price battle on compatible inkjet cartridges led to problems - financial losses and withdrawal of companies over dependent on this sector, quality problems as manufacturers resorted to cheaper components and cut on testing etc and action on the part of the OEM's to recover market share

The toner business has been more stable - and more profitable. There are challenges, particularly as the demand for colour cartridges increases. Empties costs have in general fallen - leading to inventory write-downs for those with large stocks of certain cartridges.

So for 2007

I have a background in business planning and forecasting. I am not a prophet. However these are my predictions.

The OEM's will make dramatic moves to regain control of the industry. Up till now they have not made major changes to their business model because it would impact their own profitability. It would now appear that they could reduce ink and toner prices - on established products to lower the pricing umbrella. This would make compatible/remanufactured product less attractive to the distribution channels.

I expect them to do big deals with the distribution channels (chain stores, major wholesalers, contract B2B companies) to encourage them to sell OEM only. They will throw the rule book away to ensure that the channel's bottom line is as good with OEM as with compatible/reman.

Major channels become more difficult to deal with. The drive by the figures leads to a lack of personal responsibility. The object is to 'get the figures', 'please the boss'. Product managers/buyers are no longer business people. That is why the OEM is easier to work with - saves a lot of problems.

OEM's more bypassing the channels? - quite likely.

Expect further difficult products and more IP action. The motive is frustration not money!

Chinese companies - maybe less of an issue. Expect to see less of them at Paperworld and Remax, not the least because the shows are moving to the east themselves. Don't pass up on opportunities to visit the Far East even if you are very busy.

Consolidation amongst toner/inkjet remanufacturers. Most companies in the £1-£5m (€1.5-€7.5m) have serious issues. How do they maintain profitability? How do they control their supply lines? - in and out? How do they finance new business opportunities? How do they manage the tensions that arise within a company where things are not going according to plan? Merging is an option. Major problems can arise then when you try to merge two companies who have been entrepreneurially managed. This is compounded if done across national borders.

Higher interest rates? - who knows?

Quick-buck internet businesses fail. How many e-mails do you receive regarding affiliate marketing, adsense, pay-per-click etc. BUT there are Opportunities to respond.

Increasing consumer frustration with the impersonal attitude of the 'big boys', especially in the channels. Solid local or internet businesses. People - believe it or not - like to deal with people.

Providing innovative solutions. People love testing new things. Perhaps I am an innovation-addict. But there are lots of people like me. And like me they are grey haired! That is where you need to get round to find these things. Don't expect the next "Post-it" - but expect 100 small products.

Incartek will keep its eyes out for new opportunities, in management areas working with Excelsis Enterprises to provide solutions to problems; in product areas putting portfolios for you to sell, complementing your current business.

As usual - please e-mail me - please call me on any issue. I am happy for you to bounce ideas or request advice. If I can help I will; if not then I'll see if I can find somebody who can.