Gambling, Simple NFL Systems - #21 & #33: More Early-Season Betting Strategies


by DENNIS ARTHUR - Date: 2008-08-28 - Word Count: 1257 Share This!

Following up on my article from this past May on the topic of handicapping the early portion of the NFL regular season and the associated importance of Pythagorean Win Percentage: here are another 2 systems that play exclusively on games before Week 4.

When it comes to handicapping NFL games in September, there are really only a handful of stats from the current season that are truly meaningful, in addition to an assortment of variables from the team's previous season that also are fairly predictive in nature.

The first situation I would like to explore involves a key stat from a team's previous campaign: Season Fumble Differential (FUMD), which is calculated by subtracting opposition fumbles minus fumbles against. Obviously, a positive differential means the team in question was luckier-than-average while a negative differential signifies the opposite.

I use the word 'luck' above because fumbles are just that: a lucky or unlucky occurrence (depending on which side you're on) that affects good teams just as often as bad ones. This undeniable fact creates a situation that the astute bettor can profit from.

Basically, an opportunity for profit exists here because the typical bettor usually doesn't dig very deep to actually find out why a team may have had a losing or .500 record in the past season--and for teams with a FUMD < 0, this is the case over 75% of the time--they will only look as far as wins and losses; points for and against, etc, etc.

For this very reason, teams entering a new season that had a negative fumble differential in the previous one are an excellent wager against the spread thanks to the bias that 'square' bettors may have against them, based on their perceived 'under-performance'--a bias that will show up in the form of an advantageous line for the team in question.

Since 1994, these 'value added' teams have been a stellar 194-143 (57.6%) ATS in Week 2 and 3 of the following season, creating a profit of $3,670.00 betting $110 to win back $100.00 in each case.

What's more, if you go one step further and also stipulate that this team is entering Week 2 or 3 off a home game, this situation jumps to an incredible 120-60 (66.7%) ATS based on these 3 conditions alone!

For those that want to take things even further, by eliminating underdogs of >= 10 points and teams coming off either a Monday Night game, or, back-to-back straight-up wins of >= 7 points, we are left with a situation that is 104-37 ATS (73.8%) since 1994.

For all the details on this trend (#21), please scroll to the bottom.

Next up, we have a system (#33) that looks at a key statistic from Week 1 of the regular season: Time of Possession For (TOPF) that has been a powerful predictor of spread results in the following week.

TOPF is actually a useful stat through-out the season, but, it is even more efficient at foreshadowing spread-winners in the early part of the season, when bettors perhaps too much stock in more obvious indicators of team play, such as points scored and allowed.

Looking at which teams won or lost in Week 1 is not nearly as important as looking at which teams were able to control the clock even if they eventually went on to lose the game.

How important is TOPF at this juncture? This situation will illustrate what I am talking about: Since 1994, teams entering Week 2 that had a higher TOPF than their current opponent had in their first game, are a profitable 123-93 (56.9%) ATS. Based on this one condition, you would have taken home $2,070.00 wagering $110 to win back $100 on each game.

So, if Miami were to play Cincinnati in Week 2 and the Dolphins were coming off a game in which they controlled the ball 33 minutes, while the Bengals only had the ball 29 minutes in their season-opener, we would have a play on the Dolphins. It's that simple.

TOPF basically helps to illustrate which teams are truly 'on their game' coming out of the pre-season, or at the very least, appear to be more on their game than the team they happen to be facing in Week 2.

Ultimately, it bodes well for a team if they demonstrated an ability to sustain long drives on offense in Week 1, or their defense was able to keep their opponent off the field for the most part, regardless of whether these factors led to a win or not.

Now, as always, there are a couple of other interesting conditions that can be added to the logic of this trend which increases its potential for big profits dramatically.

If we go on to eliminate any games where the opponent of the team with the TOPF advantage happened to put on a decent show offensively in Week 1, with a rushing yardage total of > 125 yards, or, total yards of more than 350, the record of this situation then jumps to 97-50 (66.0%) ATS since 1994.

If you really want to whittle things down, you could also eliminate games where the team with the TOPF advantage had more than 60 yards of penalties against in Week 1 and cases where this team is in a Non-Divisional Sandwich (Week 1 Div Opp - Week 2 Non-Div Opp - Week 3 Div Opp). To see what this does to the historical results, please review the stats for system #33 below.

(Notes: ASMR stands for Average Spread Margin Rating. A positive rating indicates a trend that is stronger than average versus the line, negative--weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this situation at one time or another. WT% is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR is the average spread for teams in this situation. For more details, please consult Page 13 of my 2007 NFL Game Sheets Guide.)

System #21 Summary

Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)
1) Week 2 or 3 of the Regular Season.
2) Last Game (LG) was at Home.
3) Last Seasons Fumble Differential (FUMD) < 0.

Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)
1) Last Game not Monday Night (MN).
2) Exclude Back-to-Back SU Wins of >=7 PTS in L2G.
3) Exclude Spread >= 10 PTS.

System Stats
ASMR: +0.2
Home%: 33.3
Dog%: 61.0
TDIS%: 100.0
WT%: 66.0
SPR: +1.2
Top Teams: BAL(8); MIN(8); CLE(7); GB(7)

System Records
Overall (Since '94): 104-37 ATS
2007 Season: 8-1 ATS
2006 Season: 6-3 ATS
2005 Season: 6-2 ATS
2004 Season: 8-4 ATS

Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets.
2007 WK3--CAR 27 ATL 20 (CAR -3.5) W
2007 WK3--JAC 23 DEN 14 (JAC +3.5) W
2007 WK3--OAK 26 CLE 24 (CLE +3) W

System #33 Summary

Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)
1) Week 2 of the Regular Season.
2) Time-of-Possesion (TOPF) in LG greater than their Current Opponent's.

Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)
1) Exclude Opponent LG Rushing Yards For (RYF) > 125.
2) Exclude Opponent LG Total Yards For (TYF) > 350.
3) Exclude teams with > 60 Yards of Penalties against (PEYA) in their LG.
4) Exclude Non-Divisional Sandwich (NDIV).

System Stats
ASMR: -0.1
Home%: 40.0
Dog%: 44.2
TDIS%: 93.8
WT%: 61.1
SPR: -0.7
Top Teams: CIN(7); WAS(7); BAL(6); SD(6)

System Record
Overall (Since '94): 72-22 ATS
2007 Season: 3-2 ATS
2006 Season: 9-2 ATS
2005 Season: 7-2 ATS
2004 Season: 5-1 ATS

Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets.
2007 WK2--CHI 20 KC 10 (KC +12) W
2007 WK2--TB 31 NO 14 (NO -3.5) L
2007 WK2--CLE 51 CIN 45 (CIN -6.5) L


Related Tags: trends, handicapping, vegas line, nfl point spread, team ratings, nfl betting systems, wagering advice, pro-football stats, betting articles

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