Nfl Game Analysis: 3 Reasons to Bet on Oakland (+9.5) in Week 3

by Dennis Arthur - Date: 2008-09-17 - Word Count: 217 Share This!

This particular match is interesting for the fact that both Buffalo and Oakland were favoured to cover the spread in separate high-percentage plays last week, and both ended up doing just that, ATS and straight-up.

This week, it appears that Buffalo will struggle versus an inflated 9 1/2 point spread; however, based on a number of reasons outlined below and while I am not bold enough to call an outright win for the Raiders, all signs point to a tightly fought contest.

So, why are the Bills facing potential trouble versus the spread this week?

Reason #1
Oakland finds themselves in an interesting Week 3 momentum situation that involves teams that lost their first game of the season, followed by a win in Week 2, and are now either 1st or 2nd in their division (the Raiders are currently in 2nd in the AFC West, behind Denver at 2-0).

Historically, teams ride their Week 2 turn-around to a spread-victory in Week 3 and they have been 29-3 ATS since 1994 and 7-1 ATS in the past 3 seasons.

Reason #2
Before Week 15 of the season, teams with a Big Rush Yardage % For of > 50 (58.7% of Oakland's rushing yardage has come on run plays of 10 or more yards so far) that also have a Play Book Execution Penalty Average Against of

Related Tags: handicapping, vegas line, nfl point spread, team ratings, wagering advice, pro-football stats, betting articles, best bet, nfl game analysis, sample trends, high percentage play, top pick, spread pick

Dennis Arthur, a self-professed statistics junkie and American Football fanatic, has been providing innovative NFL analysis based against the Vegas point spread since 1999. For more wagering orientated articles like this one along with specialized team ratings and winning selections versus the spread, visit his site at

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