In our busy world, we have a natural tendency to categorize "traumatic" events as basically chaotic and random. However, from a rational and scientific standpoint, little of the known universe is without order. Violent crime, especially when exacted on the unsuspecting, often appears to follow our natural tendency towards this "chaos theory", but there is usually an order to these events. By examining some of these variables, we can better understand, and in so doing, protect ourselves from these terrible events.

There is a great axiom, elaborated on precisely by Marc MacYoung (a renown self defense expert), that simply states "what you think you know will kill you!" Nothing could be closer to the truth in regard to the average person's understanding of crime. Mr. MacYoung points out that crime is really a process, with easily identifiable stages. This theory is supported by studies over the last decades by researchers across the globe. Once a person learns to identify the characteristics of these "stages", or variables as I like to call them, it is easier to avoid or deal with crime.

First, we must understand that criminals support themselves by doing crimes! These individuals absolutely have to perform within a set of guidelines in order to be successful. Unsuccessful criminals are either in jail, dead, or have just begun a life of crime. In a very real way, the most dangerous criminals can often be the beginners, who make mistakes that change their original intent. Look at it this way, if a mugger could just get your money without having any contact at all, would he not do so? Most criminals need to support their lifestyle, and killing someone over $100 is not a very efficient way to carry on a criminal enterprise. However, escalations in situations often lead criminals into more "have to" situations. Given a choice of going to jail for 10 years, or beating your head in, most criminals would hurt you rather than go to jail. The point is that we know that any criminal simply "has to" do certain things to be successful.

There is a rather simple formula that demonstrates 3 main variables that must exist for a criminal to initiate an attack. MacYoung expresses this formula as a triangle, but the variables are simply: Intent + Opportunity + Ability = Crime. If we can recognize the existence of this formula, then we can learn to evaluate situations in the same way criminals do. Once we learn this habit, we can more easily avoid or be prepared for the event. Criminals always have intent to steal, but the other variables may not be optimal, and this is how they evaluate who and where to commit crime. The ability to over power the victim is most critical. Weapons and physical characteristics play a vital role here. The third variable is opportunity; where obviously environment, proximity, and targets have to be in place. If all these variables are in tact, and you are the target, then you are going to be attacked!

Reverse logic is what we must use in order to remove at least one of these variables. If you are not in areas where criminals are waiting for you, then there is no opportunity. Barring that, if you do not look like someone who can be overpowered, then you risk of attack is less. This is a difficult variable to effect easily, unless you look like Chuck Norris. Self defense training, non-lethal self defense weapons or firearms level the playing field covertly, but to the criminal you may still be a prime target. Criminal intent is the one variable that can not be eliminated. Violent criminals have, at some point, decided that they are willing to use violence to get what they want. The only defense against this variable is the elimination of one of the other two. At the extreme, if you are driving a tank, then a criminal might not believe that you can be easily attacked.

This web site has very in depth information on the subject. In the interim, think like a criminal before you walk down that dark alley. We cannot always choose where we "have" to go, or even how we get to various destinations. Watch people in areas where opportunity might exist, it they look like they might be able to attack you, then they probably could. Are the intent, opportunity, and ability in place? If so, you should probably remove yourself, or you should be covertly prepared to deal with an attack. Once you realize that violent crime is not about chaos, but is an ordered and semi-logical process, you can more easily contend with the problem. I hope that this article has helped you recognize at least this much, and I am supplying some good links to resources that will help you learn more.

Important Links: http://www.ento-guard.com Crime library, and devices for non-lethal self defense! http://www.bbc.co.uk/crime/prevention/index.shtml UK site, but very informative!