Simple Nfl Systems - #40: Favourites of >= 14 Pts Coming Off a Big Win Ats
For those of you who like to bet on the perennial Super-Bowl contenders: here is a fairly straight-forward NFL betting system that involves favourites of at least 14 points that has been 20-0 ATS over the past 14 seasons and 3-0 ATS last year alone.
Spreads of at least 2 TD's are actually not as common as you might think: Since 1994, there have only been 93 games involving a line of 14+ points and favourites have produced a rather mundane record of 46-47 ATS during this time period.
Thanks in part to the early dominance of New England last season, 2007 saw the highest number of 2-touchdown spreads in the past 15 years: a total of 13 games had a line of at least 14 points. After getting burned in the first half of the season, lines makers caught up with the Patriots and at seasons end, big favs were only 6-7 against the number.
Now, before I go any further, it's important to mention that trends or systems involving a smaller number of games, such as this one, tend to be less reliable in predicting future outcomes than a trend that involves say, 100-200 games.
Additionally, systems that typically play on only a portion of teams in the league (in this case, only 34.4% of teams have been involved at one time or another) are also more susceptible to a down-turn in fortunes.
Have said this, a small system such as this one that involves a limited number of related conditions can be a useful tool in handicapping a game where more substantial trends or other significant betting information is lacking. In other words: I don't recommend making a selection based solely
Related Tags: trends, handicapping, vegas line, nfl point spread, team ratings, nfl betting systems, wagering advice, pro-football stats, betting articles
Dennis Arthur, a self-professed statistics junkie and American Football fanatic, has been providing innovative NFL analysis based against the Vegas point spread since 1999. For more wagering orientated articles like this one along with specialized team ratings and winning selections versus the spread, visit his site at http://www.armchairanalysis.com.
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