Government, The Hillary Clinton Presidential Campaign Of 2012
It is likely that both Clintons have realized for several months that Hillary Clinton would not be the Democratic Party nominee in 2008. In addition to craving the power of elected office, the Clintons are, if nothing else, very politically astute. So why does Mrs. Clinton continue her futile 2008 campaign? The answer to that question is becoming increasingly apparent with each passing day. She is using it as a political platform to launch her next campaign for the Presidency in 2012.
Make no mistake that at the right political time, after all the primaries and caucuses end in June, she will concede the 2008 Democratic party nomination to Barack Obama. Her concession speech will occur before the Democratic convention but only after all the delegates from Michigan and Florida have been seated.
In her speech, she will say that she is withdrawing from this close election for the good of the party and that she is acting for the high purpose of party unity. She will also say that she has stayed in the race to insure that the interests of every delegate in Florida and Michigan are treated properly.
Of course, prior to her public concession speech, she will have secured from the Obama campaign her own prime time televised speech at the Democratic convention and a pledge to absorb her campaign's multi million dollar debt. Her reward for finally acknowledging the reality of her election defeat will be several more months of positive political visibility and an improvement in her finances to pursue a future campaign.
In addition she will experience the good will of a Democratic Party trying to avoid a divisive August Democratic convention. She will also be seen fighting for the victims of the Democratic primary rules in the states of Michigan and Florida. Overall, it is a 2008 political ending with the potential to launch another Presidential campaign for her in the future.
However, after the Democratic convention, Hillary Clinton will need some political luck in the fall. The truth is that she needs Barack Obama to lose the November Presidential election. His defeat cannot be traced back to either Hillary or Bill Clinton in any way. Surely, there will be many Clinton promises to campaign hard for Obama, but the actual effort by them for the Obama campaign will surely be constrained as it was for Democratic candidate John Kerry four years ago.
Two terms of Barack Obama in the White House and in control of the Democratic Party would leave both Clintons on the political outside looking in. In eight years, Hillary Clinton would probably be too old to seriously challenge for the Presidency, since she would be sixty nine years of age in the year 2016. Therefore, a Barack Obama victory in November 2008 would end for good the Presidential hopes of Hillary Rodham Clinton.
However, the outlook for the Clinton's is much improved with a John McCain election victory in November. In fact, four years of Republican John McCain in the White House would provide one final opportunity for Mrs. Clinton to campaign for the nation's highest office in the next Presidential election.
In 2012, John McCain would be celebrating his seventy sixth birthday. It is very likely that he would not run for a second term in office at that age. If he did, his advanced age would certainly be a major campaign issue. It is also very likely that with Republican, John McCain, in the White House, the 2012 election would once again provide a wide open field for Mrs. Clinton as the potential Democratic nominee.
Many mainstream political pundits are speculating that Mrs. Clinton may be offered the spot of Vice President on the 2008 Democratic ticket. The truth is that it is hard to see how such a ticket helps either candidate. In fact, such a ticket could create several major problems in the fall for the Obama campaign. First, it would bring the Clintons' political baggage into the November campaign. Remember, she is currently viewed as untrustworthy in current public opinion polls by 6 of every 10 voters. Next, it would be hard to keep her husband focused on the campaign trail. He is a campaign trail liability as was in evidence in the recent Democratic primaries. In addition, both Clintons would probably upstage Barack Obama throughout the fall campaign and even into his first term of office in the White House.
It is also unclear what Hillary Clinton actually brings to the Democratic ticket for Obama. The fact is that Hillary Clinton's primary base of support is white Democratic women. It is a voting demographic which should vote for Barack Obama without her on the ticket anyway. In addition, having Hillary Clinton as a running mate would compromise the Obama campaign of change while adding little actual experience in the area of United States foreign policy.
The Clintons' thirst for a return to the White House is still clearly evident. However, the end of Hillary Clinton's 2008 Presidential campaign is near. Her current political motivation is to position herself in defeat with a future Presidential campaign in mind. If Barack Obama loses in the fall general election, her next campaign for the Presidency in 2012 will have already begun.
James William Smith has worked in senior management positions for some of the largest financial services firms in the United States for the last twenty five years. He has also provided business consulting support for insurance organizations and start up businesses. Mr. Smith has a Bachelor of Science Degree from Boston College. He enjoys writing articles on political, national, and world events. Visit his website at http://www.eworldvu.com
Related Tags: government, politics, current affairs, barack obama, hillary clinton, 2012, democratic primary election
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