Oil's Down, Opportunities are Up!


by John Whitefoot - Date: 2007-03-14 - Word Count: 686 Share This!

According to my calendar, winter is in full bloom, but you'd never know it if your seasonal gauge is oil prices. Crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange slipped to $50.24 a barrel earlier this week, trading at levels not seen since May 2005.

In fact, oil prices have fallen by more than a third since peaking at $78.40 last July and are down over 10% so far this year.

Wall Street usually regards plunging energy prices as a boon, lifting consumer spending. Recently though, it's been seen as a mixed blessing (as so many things are on Wall Street), as the drop could drag down oil companies' profits and reduce fund investing.

One energy analyst expects that last year's average oil price of $66 will be the peak in the cycle, forecasting an average oil price of $56 in 2007, on par with the average price in 2005.

Still, others are more bullish about the industry, citing faster production declines from existing wells, lower initial production per well and grueling drilling conditions. Some OPEC production cuts will remain, but ongoing geopolitical tensions will re-emerge (they maintain), driving oil prices back above $70 a barrel as we go through 2007.

An even more bullish sentiment suggest that oil will temporarily rise above the $100 a barrel mark due to serious disruptions in supply, most likely in Iran or Iraq.

The best way of course to keep oil and gas prices down is to avoid importing it from politically contentious regions like the Middle East. A recent article noted that the U.S. wants Canada to dramatically expand its oil exports from the Alberta oilsands.

U.S. and Canadian oil executives and government officials met for a two-day oil summit in Houston in 2006 and made plans for a "fivefold expansion" in oilsands productions in a relatively "short time span." The meeting was organized by the U.S. Department of Energy and Natural Resources Canada.

Canada is already the top exporter of oil to the American market, exporting the equivalent of one million barrels a day - the exact amount that the oilsands industry in Alberta currently produces.

A fivefold increase would mean the exportation of five million barrels a day, which would supply a quarter of current American consumption and add up to almost half of all U.S. imports.

In his state of the union address in 2006, President George W. Bush set out a goal to drastically reduce oil imports from the Middle East and make American dependence on Middle Eastern oil "a thing of the past."

One Washington insider and expert on the geo-strategic aspect of the oil industry, said President Bush is counting on Canada to help wean the U.S. off Middle Eastern oil - a goal now defined as a natural security objective.

But how does the see-saw opinion about the price of oil and where it will come from impact penny stock investors? Oil prices are down, which means, a lot of investors have turned their gaze elsewhere. If you're interested in energy stocks, now may be a good time to root around.

Canada and the U.S. are home to a number of revenue generating junior oil and gas stocks. And despite the large number of oil behemoths dotting the landscape, there is still plenty of room for the small player to grow.

In fact, a $1-trillion Canadian oil and gas bonanza awaits production in aging western wells, according to an energy treasure map drawn by industry and government experts. The astronomical added wealth can be reaped chiefly in Alberta by tapping leftovers used in conventional oil and gas fields.

Still not sure you want to invest in junior oil and gas stocks. Take heed. Whether oil and gas prices are up or down, the aging oil industry always needs to be maintained.

Take a look at penny stock companies that service the oil and gas industry. Improving long-term outlook for U.S. natural gas and improvements in global oil prices are expected to boost oilfield service stocks.

The big trend in oil and gas in 2007 is expected to be a choppy repeat of 2006. But do a little research and look where others aren't and you may be duly rewarded.

Related Tags: investing, stock market, barrel, oil, alberta, investors, penny stocks, penny stock

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