TTS Newsletter #9

by Matt Bisogno - Date: 2007-04-10 - Word Count: 2166 Share This!

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WELCOME & CONTENTS

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Hello again, and welcome back to your fortnightly newsletter from the

offices of TrainerTrackStats. Once again the (very wet) weather has been playing havoc with the fixtures programme, but there's still been plenty of action since I last wrote to you.

In this issue:

- Review since last newsletter

- System angle: "Grand National Follow Up"

- Coming Soon: TrainerFlatStats

- The TTS Joke...

- "You Might Be Interested In�"

- Tomorrow's qualifiers

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REVIEW SINCE LAST NEWSLETTER

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With less than three weeks to go until the start of the Cheltenham Festival, pretty much all of the big trials have now been run, and - if anything - the waters seem muddier than ever.

For the main events, there seem to be numerous contenders with legitimate chances.

Firstly, looking at the Champion Hurdle, the form of Detroit City was again upheld by Straw Bear winning a muddling affair at Wincanton in the Kingwell Hurdle. I was there last Saturday, and did a good few quid on the second horse, Afsoun. The time of the race though was slower than the novice hurdle over the same trip, won impressively by a David Pipe inmate, Osana. (Both Osana and Song Of Songs, who finished behind him, look horses to follow at Aintree rather than Cheltenham).

So if Detroit City looks good in light of Straw Bear's performance, what of the Irish contenders? Both Mac's Joy and Harchibald capitulated in the face of a relentless gallop set up front by Champion Chaser, Newmill. Although Mac's Joy was not beaten far, and a stiffer stamina test will suit, it must be disappointing to connections of both horses that they were beaten by an animal who won't even run in the race!

It's still difficult for me to pick the winner, as the most likely candidate, Detroit City, has a welter statistical burden to overcome, being a winner of last season's Triumph Hurdle and, therefore, a five year old. Increasingly, form says he will win, but I can't ignore the stats, so will probably try Hardy Eustace and Macs Joy each way.

The Champion Chase picture has improved over the past fortnight, with big prep runs from Well Chief and the aforementioned Newmill.

Well Chief had been off the track for almost two years before returning in style, thrashing Ashley Brook (Voy Por Ustedes unseated and Foreman pulled up). Assuming there is no bounce factor (i.e. the exertion leading him to underperform next time), WC looks a worthy favourite.

Of those in behind, Foreman looks better on a flat track, as we saw when he won at Aintree last year, turning the Arkle tables with Voy Por Ustedes, while the last named remains something of an enigma. Clearly a very good horse, and from a top stable, we have learned little in a predictable second to Kauto Star, a predictable beating of Oneway, and an unpredictable unseating (he is normally a very safe conveyance) behind Well Chief.

At the prices, and with the chance that Well Chief could bounce, I'd want to oppose him, though I'd be delighted to see him crowned champion, as I think he's a special horse. So, while my heart says Well Chief, my wallet says Voy Por Ustedes. The record of Arkle winners in the Champion Chase is impressive, and this fellow will be ready to run for his life on the day.

One other horse worth a mention is Nickname. His trainer says he will only run if the ground is soft or softer, and he is in to run on Sunday in Ireland. He could yet prove to be a fly in the punting ointment.

Moving on to the World Hurdle, this race revolves around one horse. Black Jack Ketchum is his name, and there are two schools of thought on his ability. The first says he is a good horse, who has been placed shrewdly by his trainer (Jonjo O'Neill), and who was finally found out against other good horses last time. The other says that he is a very good horse, and he didn't run to his form last time. I have to concede to being a fence sitter, as I can see the merit of both arguments.

As a punter, I will not be rushing to take the 7/4, of that I am certain. So where is the value? Well, clearly his usurper from last time, Blazing Bailey, must figure. Placed behind Detroit City in last year's Triumph Hurdle, he's proved himself a gutsy horse, and a thorough stayer this year, and his trainer (Alan King) knows what it takes to win this race, having done the business last year with My Way De Solzen. It's interesting to note that his trainer reckons he should have won the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot (where he finished only fourth to Mighty Man, having had a very troubled run).

Of the others, Inglis Drever and Mighty Man have their chances but wouldn't be for me and - further down the lists - Overstrand would be of interest if taking his chance. He's one tough and genuine customer, and runner up in the Tote Gold Trophy followed by victory a week later in a big handicap at Ascot last weekend. There are question marks over both his class and whether he stays but, at 40/1, he might be worth a little speculative wager.

Finally, in the Gold Cup, I have nailed my colours to the mast here on numerous previous occasions, and I see no reason to desert the Exotic Dancer ship now. Kauto Star is clearly the form horse, but he has a tendency to clatter a fence or two, and may well get found out over the twenty-six furlongs and twenty-two fences of the race. (I'm still talking through my pocket, having backed him when he came down early in the Champion Chase last year..!)

Elsewhere on the likely starters list, there are a number of Irish horses who have a squeak, notably last year's winner War Of Attrition, and In Compliance, but it has always been, and remains, Exotic Dancer for me.

A novelty punt on Kingscliff might reward small stakes each way: he has two types of running, but - if he gets out of his stable on the right side - could give you a run at triple figure odds (119/1 as I write) on Betfair currently.

Next time, I'll look at the novice races and also the handicaps, though I have to concede that I'm no expert on the latter�.!

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SYSTEM ANGLE: Grand National Follow Up

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Now that the weights have been published, it seems a very good time to review the Aintree Grand National picture from a stats angle. To recap, these are the reasons it is a good stats race:

- No other race has so many horses lining up

- No other race is run over such an extreme distance

- No other race has the Aintree fences (with the exception of races at the track of course)

- No other race offers such much prize money and kudos (attracting some very classy horses)

- No other race is guaranteed to be run at a frantic pace from the outset

- No French race is run over anything like this distance (French breds don't stay the trip!)

The stats angle for the race says to follow the logic. This means that we're looking for:

- a proven stayer (won over 3m+);

- a reliable jumper (less than two falls in the last two seasons), and at least into his third season jumping;

- a horse that has won in a field of at least 12;

- a horse mature enough to win the race, but not past his best (aged 8-12);

- a horse in the handicap proper, but carrying 11stone or less (i.e. scheduled to carry 10-00 to 11-00);

- a horse with proven class (placed in a Grade 3 chase or better);

- a horse who was not bred in France (some have run close, none have won...);and,

- Pay special attention to the Irish (especially if they've been hurdling!); and,

- Favour horses who have jumped the Aintree fences

This makes the 119 entries truncate to a rather more manageable twelve (I previously quoted eight horses, due to some confusion on my part about French bred horses. If a horse has only one French parent, then it is not classed as a French bred, hence some horses have been reinstated). Seven of the eight I previously mentioned remain (Numbersixvalverde has to carry 11-03 and is discounted on this basis):

Point Barrow - Irish National winner off top weight

Graphic Approach - Run some eye catching races for his shrewd trainer who went close with Mely Moss

Naunton Brook - Sound form, safe jumper, trainer won with Earth Summit. Entered in Red Sq Gold Cup on 17th Feb

Cloudy Bays - Excellent form in Ireland, has been running in hurdles, but may have to carry too much weight?

Dun Doire - Cheltenham Festival winner for very shrewd trainer, hampered when unseated last year, been running in hurdles races since Grand National '06

Garvivonnian - An old friend of mine, races prominently and jumps well, so will give a run for money. Doubtful stayer though, alas.

Silver Birch - my big ante-post wager last year, before things went inexplicably wrong. Has been nursed back to form by lesser known Irish trainer and finished 2nd in a cross country race at Punchestown last weekend.

To these we now add:

Little Brick: Much hyped recruit, who won well at Wincanton last weekend. To my eye, he looked a very good jumper but a doubtful stayer.

Longshanks: No real negatives, and from a stable who has won the race before. Has jumped the Aintree fences twice before in shorter races.

Nil Desperandum: Moved to Venetia Williams this season, and has been backed for the race.

Puntal: Ran an unbelievable race last year to finish 6th, after 400 days off the track. He's a bit fitter this year, so could run very well.

Jack High: Former Betfred (aka Whitbread) Gold Cup winner, who was near the top of ante-post lists last year.

So, this is my Dirty Dozen for the race. Some obvious contenders here, and hopefully some interesting dark horses. I have a number of betfair wagers in the triple digit odds, so let's hope one of them obliges!

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COMING SOON: TRAINERFLATSTATS / NAG-NAG-NAG

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Another quick plug for TrainerFlatStats, which is in development and is progressing well. As the name suggests, it's the same concept but for the flat turf season beginning on 31st March (a very late start this year).

As I mentioned last letter, I'm also planning to introduce a site where TTS / TFS customers and non-customers alike can discuss the burning racing issues of the day, catch up on news stories, and rip me to shreds for my abject blog ramblings.

This site now has a name, though it's not yet operational.

Step forward, nag-nag-nag.co.uk, the home of racing ranting! (And, hopefully, slightly more informed, insightful and instructive discussions).

I will of course keep you appraised of developments as time passes.

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