Pennsylvania Paranoia
The way the polls have been changing both Hillary and Obama "Pennsylvania paranoia" has set in to both camps. The primary is now just a day away. Hillary needs a BIG VICTORY and Obama needs to just STAY CLOSE. How will the peopple of the Keystone state judge all the negative campaigning and attacks that have been going on? We'll know soon enough.
Hillary Clinton remains barely ahead of rival Barack Obama of Illinois leading up to Tuesday's presidential Pennsylvania primary, a new Newsmax/Zogby daily tracking poll shows. Her advantage is a statistically insignificant three points, 46% to 43%, over Obama, as support in the race ebbs and flows within a tight margin - she led by five points yesterday.
But another poll had Hillary up by 20 points last week.
Who is right?
The telephone survey, conducted using live operators working out of Zogby's on-site call center in Upstate New York, included 607 likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania. It carries a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. Can anything be determined by 607 calls? The pollsters have taken a beating this year and they have to be a bit paranoid as well.
Pollster John Zogby had this comment. "Okay, so let's play Confound the Pollsters. Obama, who polled a mere 40% yesterday had a good today at 46% to Clinton's 44%. We quadruple-checked our Saturday sample and it is solid. Perhaps the buzz from both his San Francisco statements and the ABC debate has subsided". But, by that much?
The superdelegates are watching!
He picked up a few more points in Philadelphia and the east, where he has been leading, in the central state area, and up-ticked a bit with men. Additionally he set a record turnout for a campaign event with mroe than 35,000 attending a weekend stump stop.
Zogby went on to add that "Clinton seems to have added a few points in the Pittsburgh region. But a very close examination of these numbers over the five days we have been tracking shows that it is whites and Catholics who are undecided. They clearly do not like Clinton and are definitely not breaking for Obama." Ah, those last minute deciders who make it hell on the pollsters.
Don't you just love 'em?
But in every demographic group, the race has become remarkably stable. Clinton leads by 11 points among women, while Obama leads by 7 points among men. Obama leads among those under age 54, while Clinton holds an edge among those age 55 and older.
In two days we'll know whose paranoia was valid! :-)
Related Tags: catholic, philadelphia, obama, hillary, pittsburg, superdelegates, zogby pollsters, pennsylvania paranoia
ernie@lrchouston.com
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