2007 MLB Preview - Washington
2006 W-L 71-91 2006 O-U 85-72-5
Following a promising 81-81 record in their first year in Washington, the Nationals had hopes of contending in the National League East in 2006 but they could not overcome an incredibly slow start. Washington went 13-27 in its first 40 games and even though it went a respectable 58-64 the rest of the way, the house was cleaned. Manager Frank Robinson was let go while superstar Alfonso Soriano took his skills to the Cubs. There is now an owner and a general manager in place however so the direction is going the right way. It's rebuilding time for Washington and while the future does look bright, it's going to take a while.
Money
Washington was a middle of the road team as it dropped 6.5 units on the season. Most of that damage was done during that early 40-game stretch as the Nationals dropped 12.9 units over that span. From May 18th on, Washington was +6.4 units so it wasn't all too bad during the summer. The Nationals were a game over .500 at home and showed a slight profit of 1.7 units but it was the dismal play on the road that hurt backers. Washington was favored too often, 34 times in fact, and dropped 11.9 units in the process. Taking the Nationals in the big underdog role was not wise either as they went 0-6 when getting a +200 or more moneyline.
Washington was near the bottom of most offensive statistical categories yet it finished 13 games over .500 in contests that went over the total. This is in contrast to going 23 games under in the previous year. It certainly wasn't luck as the Nationals had the worst ERA in the National League at 5.03. The bullpen was decent but the starters, all 11 of them that were used at one point throughout the season, were inconsistent. RFK was a pitchers park in 2005 and in 2006, it saw 41 of 81 games go over. With a starting rotation even more suspect this season, we could see the disparity be even more in 2007 and watch a ton of games fly over.
Offense
The loss of Soriano is a big blow to the offense that wasn't very good to begin with. The production will now rest on the shoulders of Ryan Zimmerman and Austin Kearns. Zimmerman has loads of potential and is coming off a very solid season. Kearns was average after coming over from Cincinnati and will need to show more in his first stint as an everyday player. Kory Casto is a rookie outfielder that has a great upside after winning the organization's Minor League Player of the Year twice. His transition to big league pitching might be tough. Nick Johnson, who seems to always be hurt, needs to stay healthy for this team to score enough runs.
Pitching
This is where the real problems are. John Patterson is the "ace" if he can even be labeled that. He missed most of last season with a forearm injury and if he can show anything from his 3.13 ERA of 2005, he will start a good foundation. The problem is there is absolutely nothing after that. Mike O'Connor is the Nationals returning leader in wins with 10 but along with that is a 4.81 ERA. Former prospects of other organizations, Joel Hanrahan Colby Lewis are both getting looks. The bullpen will be the bright spot as Chad Cordero is one of the best closers around when given save opportunities while the return of Luis Ayala, who missed all of last season, will strengthen the unit even more.
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Matt Fargo is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Matt_Fargo.htm
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