CRASH? What Crash?


by Jeremy Britton - Date: 2007-01-28 - Word Count: 1218 Share This!

 

Crash? What Crash?

Looking at the investment landscape over the last few years, we have seen residential property shoot up dramatically for about four or five years in a row. We have seen companies such as Woodside Petroleum and BHP double in value in just one or two years. The Australian share-market has experienced double-digit returns for a few years running, the Aussie dollar is strong, interest rates are still OK and life is good…


 Share-markets are rising in America and Japan, countries that were previously in negative stock territory. Even boring old bond yields have recently picked up. How long will the good news last? How long will it be until the next big market crash? What can we do to avoid the disaster?  Will there be a disaster at all, or is the outlook fine and sunny forever?

Just remember that you heard the warnings here first.


 

I am not one of those people who come along after the event and say “I told you so”. Although it would give me a great degree of satisfaction in 2008 to say, “I told you to invest in XYZ in 2006,” it will probably make you want to beat me up… J Please just remember that you heard it here first so that I do not have to remind you in two years time… J


 Let’s have a look at some of the previous Boom & Bust Cycles to see how they compare.

Market

Period
Duration
Market Gain
Crash
US NASDAQ
1994-2000
7 years
701%
ü    

 

Japanese Stockmarket
1982-1989
7 years
569%
ü    

 

Australian Stockmarket
1982-1987
5 years
521%
ü    

 

Resources Boom
2002-2006

 

4 years

 

289%

 

Not yet

 

Source: IRESS & Challenger

As you can see, previous “bull runs” lasted from five to seven years and returns were from 500% to 700% before the crashes. The Australian Resource Boom has not been running for that long (yet) and its returns have not been that high (yet). This would seem to indicate that the Australian Resource Boom will not crash yet (yet).


 

There are those who say “the crash will never come” and there are many that say “what goes up must come down”. The arguments will not be settled until after the dust clears. On CNN in 2000, when US “tech stocks” were dropping from dizzying heights to rock bottom, there were analysts saying “they could bounce back” They haven’t yet.


 

There are those who are out buying houses now, thinking that the residential property market will double again in the next couple of years just as it did in the last couple of years. If you think that you can double your money again after you just doubled your money, then go to a casino, suspend disbelief or become an analyst…


 Become a “realist agent”
Ok, no-one ever said that I was a real estate agent. I have only ever owned a couple of slices of land, a couple of houses and the fantastic real estate deals that I have missed out on are as numerable as they are memorable. Ask me about the times that I almost made 400% in two years. Yes, it was more than once. Almost made 400%, but not quite…

 

Realistically, residential property cannot double in the next two years. There are restraints on reasonable value, interest rates, repayments versus renting and affordability.

 

Realistically, the price of steel cannot double in the next two years either. Nor can copper, coal, oil, wheat, gas or any of the other commodities that us Aussies hold so much of, and the Chinese want so badly.

 

When rubber became scarce and expensive during World War Two, the Australian Army replaced its rubber garters with brass springs. Brass is now more expensive than rubber and you cannot imagine tying up your hair or your socks with brass springs, but during the war, that is what they did. When building materials were short and timber was at a premium in the 1950’s, our chamfer board houses became fibro houses. Necessity is the mother of improvisation…

 

When things become too expensive, we find a way around it.  Be a realist. If our resources become too expensive for the Chinese, be assured that they will find another way. Australia’s ride on Chinese commodity consumption cannot continue forever.

 

Where to invest when property is slow and shares may crash
Be alert and not alarmed. I am not predicting that prices of coal, steel, oil and other exports will collapse. Nor am I stating that BHP shares will drop like a rock. I am merely suggesting that the prices simply cannot continue to climb as sharply as they already have.

 

We may find that commodities simply plateau, and lead to a plateuing of share prices, just as some sections of residential property are now leveling off. Like Mrs Bucket’s Mercedes, the shares may not “crash” as such, they may simply “fail to proceed”. (Does anybody else watch “Keeping Up Appearances”?)

 

Looking to the Economic Clock, one will see that when shares are leveling off after their peak, the next thing to invest into will be a) shares, b) commodities or c) property. (If you have never seen the Economic Clock before, do a net-search or call me now! This 200-year old tool is as essential for investors as a compass is to sailors.)

 

The “Classless” Asset
There is another area in which you can invest. This investment does not fit into the regular four “asset classes” of Shares, Property, Bonds and Cash. The investment is outside of these traditional boundaries and also outside of the scope of the Economic Clock. Unlike property, shares and bonds, it does not move in predictable up and down cycles. There is neither a “perfect time” to buy nor a perfect time to sell.

 

In fact, since 1960, this investment has outperformed the S&P500 with no correlated volatility. That means that for over 40 years, this investment has delivered better returns than the stockmarket and has not had the ups and downs of the stocks. In years where the stockmarket was massively negative, this investment made positive returns. During wars and recessions it was also positive. During property slumps and wild inflation it also made strong returns with very little risk.

 

Do you know what it is yet? It’s not gold bars: this investment brings an income. It’s not term deposits: this investment has capital growth. It’s not gambling, cheating, stealing or anything illegal, immoral or unlucky, touch wood. What if I told you that this investment is endorsed by several major banks, has full government approval and also contains excellent tax benefits for Australian investors? Are you ready to discover a new investment? Are you ready to invest into a truly “classless” asset?

 

Be a realist agent. Invest safely. See you on the other side of the ‘crash’.

 

 

Jeremy

The information contained herein is of a general nature only, does not take into account your particular objectives, financial situation or needs. Accordingly the information should not be used, relied upon or treated as a substitute for specific financial advice. Whilst all care has been taken in the preparation of this material, no warranty is given in respect of the information provided and accordingly neither Professional Investment Services nor its employees or agents shall be liable on any ground whatsoever with respect to decisions or actions taken as a result of you acting upon such information. Jeremy Britton is an Authorised Representative (#298825) of Professional Investment Services, ABN 11 074 608 558, AFSL 234951. Approval # H450



Jeremy Britton DipFA SA(Fin) is an active financial planner and a lazy investor. He really does buy shares in the companies where his wife spends money. Jane & Jeremy are directors of Invest-Org-Au, a not-for-profit organisation that teaches people how to invest. Nothing on the website is for sale, just free information and education. Free DVD's, Free MP3's, Free Books, Free News Your Article Search Directory : Find in Articles

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